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Alcohol ether plate dragged down performance "Methanol does not make money at all." A company representative who participated in the 2010 China International Coal Chemical Forum told the China Securities Journal that the methanol gasoline policy is not yet clear. At present, the small-scale demonstration project cannot Digest the existing capacity.
According to Li Yongwu, president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, China's methanol production capacity has exceeded 30 million tons, but the methanol to olefins project is still in the demonstration, and the national standard for low-proportion methanol gasoline (M15) is still under development. Combined with the dumping of low-cost methanol from abroad, the operating rate of domestic alcohol ether companies is extremely low, and the overall operating rate of the methanol industry is less than 50%, while the average operating rate of dimethyl ether plant has dropped to about 20%, and the production and operation of enterprises are difficult.
According to the latest semi-annual report of several listed companies, it is not difficult to see that the alcohol ether sector, especially the relatively large methanol, has become the biggest “killer†that has dragged down the performance of listed companies in the coal chemical industry.
The companies such as Lanzhou Kechuang, Kailuan, Yanzhou Coal, etc. all stated in the mid-year report that due to the year-on-year decline in the prices of methanol and dimethyl ether, the sales situation was not optimistic, or because the operating rate was not enough, the scale effect could not be produced, and the costs could not be realized. Diluted, resulting in the loss of these companies' chemical companies or their subsidiaries engaged in chemical business.
Entrepreneurial investment enthusiasm unabated Although the current market is bleak, some companies have seen the risk of serious excesses in coal and chemical projects such as coke and methanol, and have taken the initiative to compress or stop such proposed or under construction projects, but more companies have The investment in ether fuels has not been shrunk. In particular, the major coal groups are actively extending the industrial chain to the coal chemical industry in order to resolve the potential excess risk of coal production. At this forum, Yankuang Group and Yanchang Oilfield introduced the construction progress of their coal-to-methanol project.
The above-mentioned business figures stated that compared to natural gas as raw material for methanol production, methanol producers using coal as raw materials still have certain advantages in terms of cost. This year's increase in the price of natural gas has caused gas-starved methanol companies to agonize. Although coal prices have also risen this year compared to last year, most companies that produce methanol through the coal chemical route have their own coal resources and are therefore not sensitive to cost changes.
"Enterprises bet on the clarity of future policies." The above-mentioned sources told reporters that if the policy of replacing petroleum with alcohol fuels is determined, the market is still very large. Xu Lianbao, deputy secretary-general of the National Committee for Alcohol Ether Fuels and Alcohol Ether Cleaner Automobiles, believes that alcohol ether fuel is the most feasible and realistic choice for the transition from traditional energy sources to clean energy in the past 50 years. In his opinion, under the premise of being a transitional and alternative role, alcohol ether fuels will follow the development of the “alcohol-ether-hydrogen†industrial chain, and improve the technology, accelerate the upgrading of products and upgrade the technology. Extending the life cycle of the industry, the market prospects are promising.
Hu Qianlin, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, believes that the current outstanding issue that restricts the development of alcohol ether fuels is the lack of standards. The relevant experimental work on low-proportional national standards for methanol gasoline has been completed, and work on supplementation, refinement, and revision of standards is currently underway. It is expected to be introduced in the second half of this year or the first half of next year.
Prior to this, China started the project in 2007. In 2009, it officially promulgated the methanol fuel standard for vehicle fuel and the national standard (M85) for high-rate methanol gasoline. Hu Qianlin said that only these three standards are not enough. It is a systematic project to promote the use of alcohol ether fuels. In addition to the three product standards, the standards for ancillary filling systems and transmission and distribution systems should also be issued in a timely manner.
On the one hand, the operating rate of alcohol ether fuel producers is seriously low, and business operations are difficult. On the other side, major companies actively launch alcohol fuel projects, and companies invest in coal chemical routes to produce alcohol ether fuels with passion. According to industry insiders, the difficulties faced by alcohol fuel manufacturers are temporary. Once the policy is clear, the market will realize that the alcohol ether fuel is the “most reliable†choice for the transition from traditional energy sources to new energy sources.