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The automotive market has been in an exciting state for the past year. The image is that the law of quarterly sales fluctuations in the stable growth year was basically disrupted in 2009, and the difference between the season and the season was not obvious but continued to be high fever. In particular, in January 2010, not only the year-on-year growth rate reached 126.15% (the low base does not fully explain such an astonishing figure), the growth rate of the chain has reached 17.7%, even if the delayed confirmation of sales in December was excluded, the growth rate High is still disturbing.
The rapid decline in the month-on-month growth rate in February was normal (excluding December's delayed sales in December, and the sequential decline was within the normal range), but the tracking data since March has shown signs of adjustments in demand. It is cautiously estimated that the chain growth rate will be around 10% in March and there is almost no hope of surpassing the figures in January, but it is roughly flat compared to December and is still within the normal range. Moderate rest may occur in the short term, which will benefit the healthy development of the market in the second half of the year. Maintain a growth rate of about 15% in the year.
Considering that some orders in December last year reflected a higher base for sales in January and the influence of the Spring Festival holiday in February, it is normal for car sales to fall sharply in February, and the year-on-year growth rate has a base-up factor. It also shows that the market has shown some signs of cooling. The year-on-year growth rate of small-displacement passenger vehicles below 1.6 liters in February was relatively lower, which was mainly due to the fact that the sales volume of automobiles in this displacement range was the first to start last year and had a higher year-on-year basis. At the same time, the increase in demand for mid-level and higher displacement brought about by the wealth effect under the economic recovery is expected to have a more balanced growth in various segments of the car market in 2010.
The strong sales of the heavy truck market in the first quarter were the result of the free fall of the 4 trillion stimulus policy in 2009. It is expected that the growth rate of investment will be significantly slowed down in the second half of the year, and the annual distribution trend of sales volume “high before and after low†will be more prominent in 2010. Rapid economic recovery has brought about a rapid recovery in the animal current industry. The recovery of tractor sales is faster than that of the overall heavy truck industry. This will, to a large extent, ease the market’s concerns about the impact of fixed investment growth slowdown on heavy truck sales. The recovery in demand for large and medium-sized passenger cars has come as expected. Dazhonggu sold a total of 13,329 vehicles in January 2010, an increase of 99.15% year-on-year, but the recovery of exports appears to take some time.