Du Xiangyu, head of the research group and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, stated that “it is expected that there will be a historic turning point in China’s energy development around 2030. By 2050, China will basically complete the reform of the energy system and achieve a scientific balance of energy supply and demand patterns.”

Total Energy Control Should Reduce GDP Growth

According to the Chinese Academy of Engineering, if China’s energy consumption maintains an average growth rate of 8.9% in recent years, China’s energy consumption will reach 7.9 billion tons of standard coal by 2020, accounting for half of the world’s total energy consumption. Even if it can continue to achieve a GDP of every five years, The consumption will drop by 20%, but it will continue to maintain an annual economic growth of 9%. In 2020, China’s energy consumption will also account for 30% of the current world energy consumption.

“China’s energy consumption, especially coal and oil consumption, must set ceilings. The total energy consumption in 2015 should be controlled at about 4 billion tons of standard coal, about 4.5 billion tons of standard coal by 2030, and about 5.5 billion tons by 2050. Standard coal." Du Xiangyu said.

In 2015, the total energy control target was basically adopted by the government. The newspaper learned that Changjiang Bing, Director of Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, said: "By 2015, China's total primary energy consumption will be controlled between 4 billion and 4.2 billion tons of standard coal."

The report pointed out that to achieve the goal of total energy consumption in 2015, we must not only control the energy intensity of GDP, but also control the annual average GDP growth rate too quickly. According to the total energy consumption of 325 million tons of standard coal in 2010, “if the energy efficiency indicator for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan is 16%, the above target will be achieved in 2015 only if the average GDP growth rate is controlled at 8%.” The expert who wishes to disclose his name told this reporter.

However, this reporter learned that from the development plans announced by the provinces in 2011, there are only 5 provinces and cities with a target of less than 10%. The GDP growth rate of most provinces and cities has been set at 12%-13%. This means that At the same time, the trend of capacity expansion is still very obvious, and it poses a great challenge to the 2015 total energy control target.

Du Xiangyu told this reporter: “The local government should restrain the impulse of high GDP. According to our research, China’s high-energy-consuming industries have entered a saturation period and can meet a considerable amount of capital construction needs. It is necessary to appropriately reduce the rate of GDP growth. The goal of total energy control is difficult to achieve."

Clean energy will make up half of the country

In this strategic report, coal is a major source of energy for production and consumption and has received much attention.

The report advocates that the proportion of coal in China’s total energy consumption should be reduced. In 2050, the proportion of coal in primary energy is expected to fall to 40% or even below 35%, and its strategic position should be adjusted to important basic energy sources.

At the same time, in the design of coal production, the Chinese Academy of Engineering first put forward the concept of “coal science production capacity”, which means that coal is produced under safe, efficient, clean and environmentally friendly conditions.

The Chinese Academy of Engineering recommends that the scientific capacity of the sustainable development of the coal industry in China from 2030 to 2050 should not exceed 3.8 billion tons.

In addition, the report also gives the concept and quantitative description of coal “cleanliness,” which is proposed as a new assessment indicator for the industry.

The report also details the strategic roadmap for energy development beyond coal.

"In the next few decades, oil will remain one of the pillars of China's energy security, and natural gas will be an important tool for energy structure adjustment," the report pointed out.

Du Xianglu said that “the domestically produced oil is 200 million tons (or nearly 200 million tons) per year that can continue for several decades, but China’s oil reserves are relatively low, and foreign dependence will further increase. Natural gas is a relatively clean fossil energy source. It puts emphasis on the adjustment of energy structure."

The report believes that among clean energy, hydropower is the first focus of renewable energy development by 2030. It is expected that hydropower capacity in 2020, 2030 and 2050 is expected to reach 300 million kW, 400 million kW, and 450 million to 500 million kW. . In the same period, the total contribution of non-water renewable energy reached 200 million tons, 400 million tons and 800 million tons of standard coal, respectively.

"The strategic status of renewable energy (water and non-water) will gradually increase from the current supplemental energy to one of alternative energy and even dominant energy," said Du Xiangxi.

The report pointed out that nuclear power is a major long-term strategic choice for China’s energy and can become a green pillar of China’s energy. The installed capacity of nuclear power in 2020 is expected to be 70 million kilowatts, 300 million kilowatts in 2030, and 400 million kilowatts in 2050. In 2050, nuclear power will provide more than 15% of primary energy. After that, nuclear power will continue to develop and become one of the main sources of energy for China's future.

"Through the implementation of the above-mentioned low-carbon energy strategy, it is expected that by 2050, clean energy will account for more than half of the energy structure." Du Xianglu concluded.

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