The China Automotive Technology and Research Center held a 2015 seminar on information exchange and business development in Karamay, Xinjiang on October 15. Experts from the Data Center of the China Automotive Industry Center analyzed the Chinese auto market in 2015 at the seminar and predicted the Chinese auto market in 2016 and the Chinese auto market in 2016 and the 13th Five-Year Plan.

　　 Experts believe that due to the economic downturn, stock market volatility, and overdraft restrictions, the growth rate of the domestic auto market in 2015 hit a new low in recent years. In 2016 and throughout the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the Chinese auto market will maintain a low growth rate at a high base, with an average annual growth rate of around 4%.

The representatives of the automobile industry attending the meeting believed that the experts of the data center of the China Automotive Industry Center, through the prediction of a large amount of data, were more in line with the actual situation of the Chinese automobile market. They were sober, calm and rational, and also poured some blind and optimistic experts. A basin of cold water.

Chinese auto market enters low-speed development

Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the Chinese auto market has experienced a decade of rapid growth, known as gold for 10 years. In the past 10 years, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 18 million from more than 2 million, making it the world's largest automobile producer and the largest automobile market. These 10 years coincided with the period of China's 15th and 11th Five-Year Plan (2001-2010).

Since China entered the 12th Five-Year Plan in 2011, the Chinese auto market has also entered a new normal of low- and medium-speed development, and the growth rate has slowed down markedly. In 2015, performance was particularly poor.

Experts believe that the performance of the domestic auto market this year is mainly reflected in the following aspects. First, the growth rate of production and sales has reached a new low in recent years. It is estimated that the annual growth rate is only about 3%. Second, the market segments vary greatly. SUVs continue to experience high growth, MPV growth slows, passenger cars and crossover passenger cars continue to decline, and commercial vehicles as a whole have fallen sharply. The third is the imbalance between supply and demand in the entire industry, high inventory, and increased terminal discounts. Fourth, the sales cycle is significantly longer. Fifth, the industry's profitability has been significantly weakened. Sixth, the import of cars is now negative. Seventh, the growth rate of the restricted panic car market dropped sharply. Eight is the diversification of consumer appeals affecting high-end consumption.

The reason is that, besides the automobile market entering a low-speed growth period, from the macro level, the endogenous growth momentum is slowing down and consumer demand is weakening. The stock market was in turmoil and the demand for car purchases was delayed. The advance purchases brought by the previous two years of purchase restrictions overdraft demand. From the market level, the new capacity of the automakers has entered the release period, and the market competition has become more intense. It is the new normal for automakers to drop and lower production. The high profitability of dealer stocks has weakened, and even large losses have occurred. From the consumer level, the economic downturn leads to insufficient consumer information and increased wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the promotion of shared car methods such as squatting and fasting has caused some consumers to abandon their purchases and try to share their cars.

From October 1st, the country launched a small-scale car purchase tax halving and other measures to expand auto consumption, but the analysis believes that it will only stimulate the auto market for a short period of time, and the low-speed growth trend remains unchanged throughout the year. The China Automobile Association believes that the domestic production and sales of domestically produced automobiles is about 3%.

Next year's car market may be slightly better than this year

Experts from the Data Resource Center of the China Automotive Industry Center believe that in 2016, the country will hope for economic growth to expand consumption, and the role of cars in driving consumption is great. The policy of halving the purchase tax has a certain pulling effect on the auto market. Under the influence of price cuts, weak stock market influence and favorable factors of multiple favorable policies, consumers' willingness to purchase cars has increased compared with the previous year. It is expected that the overall passenger car market in 2016 is better than this year, with annual sales growth of 3.3%, which is still a low-speed growth.

The analysis pointed out that the domestic auto market will show the following trends in 2016:

First, the trend of younger car buyers is more obvious, and the demand for personalization and diversification has increased.

Second, from the perspective of market segments, A0-class SUVs continue to grow but the competition is more intense. MPV continues to replace traditional micro-customers to maintain growth, and the car market continues to shrink.

Third, benefiting from the A0-level SUV and micro-MPV and the car purchase tax halving policy, the share of independent brands has further increased.

Fourth, due to national policy guidance and continuous improvement of infrastructure, new energy vehicles continue to grow exponentially.

Fifth, the 4-6 cities in the central and western regions with low car ownership are still the main source of market growth.

Sixth, due to the impact of fuel consumption limits and car purchase tax halving, small-scale turbocharged models are favored.

Seventh, the aftermarket of used cars, auto e-commerce, auto finance, etc. continues to be a hot spot for the market.

　　

2020 market size can reach 28.77 million

From 2016 to 2020, it is the thirteenth five-year plan for China's national economy. According to experts from the China Resources Center's Data Resource Center, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the Chinese auto market will maintain low-speed growth under the influence of high base. By 2020, the overall market size will reach 28.77 million, with an average annual growth rate of about 4%.

The analysis believes that the acceleration of urban integration during the 13th Five-Year Plan will help to increase automobile consumption. The domestic auto market still has a large room for growth, but the growth rate continues to slow down. With the continuous expansion of the number of domestic car ownership and the increase of old cars, the 13th Five-Year will usher in the peak period of redemption. It is estimated that by 2020, the sales volume of new car sales will reach 24.9 million.

The analysis pointed out that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the annual size of the sedan was maintained at around 11 million units, and the scale of SUVs and MPVs continued to grow. It is estimated that by 2020, the scale of SUVs will be 9.6 million and the MPV will be 3.16 million.

The analysis also believes that with the opening of the policy environment, auto e-commerce will enter a full-blown period during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, especially in the transaction, car and redemption links.

For the used car market during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, experts believe that as the market becomes more standardized, transparent, and consumer acceptance increases, used cars will usher in a new upsurge of rapid growth. It is estimated that by 2020, the transaction volume of used cars will reach 18.12 million, equivalent to 63% of the new car transaction volume, a net increase of 8.12 million vehicles from 2015, an increase of 20 percentage points.

Experts predict that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the auto finance company's business will diversify, and the auto industry's profits will shift to the post-market. The pre-market profit share may fall to 40%.

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