Auto market negative growth in February is almost a foregone conclusion

After the auto market generally reaped a good start in January, most dealers did not formulate a special promotion plan for the Spring Festival holiday this year. Most 4S stores normally have a rest. Although there are also stores that welcome guests, they usually adopt a rotating duty system. Eager to sell cars.

Taking the Beijing area as an example, except for the Asian Games Village Automobile Exchange Market (hereinafter referred to as “Asia City”) which has been officially open for business since the fourth lunar month, other auto trading markets such as Oude Bao and Dongfangjiye have closed in accordance with national statutory holidays. According to a person in charge of Oude Bao Automobile City, as early as the week before the Spring Festival, many dealership stores are no longer rushing to sell cars. “On the one hand, the consumers who buy the cars have already completed the purchase; on the other hand, Since the end of last year, the hot sales at the beginning of this year, many models have serious shortage of inventory, dealers without pressure generally start recycling prices."

Indeed, the statistics of the Asian cities show that the market volume began to drop significantly in the week before the Spring Festival. In addition, according to Yan Jinghui, deputy general manager of Ya City, due to the inadequate supply of vacation logistics, the supply of dealer stocks will not be available in the short term after the Spring Festival. The vehicle supply will be very tight in February. “Optional models are limited, and the price is not very stimulating. Now consumers who are shopping in the auto market are not very interested in buying.” As Yan Jinghui said, the reporter found during the visit that the recent arrival of consumers into the auto market is mainly based on Very few deals.

In addition, the news from various 4S stores can also be seen, this year's Spring Festival holiday sales than in previous years deserted. During the interview, a number of 4S shop owners told reporters that during the Spring Festival, although staff were on duty, the transaction volume was almost zero.

A sales manager of a FAW-Volkswagen 4S store said: “The weather was fairly good during the Spring Festival, and most of the consumers chose to go out to play. Moreover, because they bought a car for the holidays, they could not apply for a license. Now the rules are very strict, in order to avoid the lack of licenses. Driving is punished and delaying the purchase of a car is one of the reasons for the recent cold sales."

In March, the law of the automobile market will gradually resume. Before and after the Spring Festival, the sales season will be off-season. Because the Spring Festival this year is on February 9th, the pre-holiday discount recovery plus the post-holiday supply recovery time will make the whole month in February. Not too busy. “Starting around the week before the Spring Festival, until the fifteenth day of the lunar calendar, all are the adjustment period of the auto market.” Yan Jinghui said that the number of transactions in the Asian market after a few days is very small, and this situation will continue until the end of the month.

At present, some car models in the Beijing Auto City have no cars to sell, and they do not allow the car market in Beijing to increase sales. A person in charge of a Shanghai Volkswagen 4S store stated that at present, there are few vehicles, and the supply of all models is very tight and needs to be booked in advance. "We also want to sell more cars, but the manufacturers have limited capacity, and we have no way," said the person in charge.

“The shortage of some models in Beijing and dealers must guarantee profit at the beginning of the year and other reasons make the price of cars rise, which also increases the wait-and-see mood in the market.” Su Hui, a senior expert in the automotive industry, believes that it has been a while since February and this year In previous years, factors such as Spring Festival holidays caused poor market sentiment, and February is likely to create a low sales market for the automotive market.

Rao Da, the secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicles Association, said that last February was a bright month, so there are 21 working days. In February of this year, due to the Spring Festival holiday, there are only 17 working days, and it is inevitable that the market sales volume will drop sharply. "According to the experience, the decline of more than 35% in February this year is also normal," Rao said.

However, a number of experts also expected that with the gradual recovery of supplier supplies and the gradual warming of the weather, consumers are happy to come out to the market to see the car selection car, the auto market will be a day after the bustling up in March. According to a number of joint ventures and independent brand dealers, they are planning new promotions for the recovery of the auto market after the holiday. "The new promotion plan will be launched in late February and early March," said a person in charge of a Beijing Hyundai 4S store.

Moreover, it is estimated that manufacturers will also provide appropriate support policies in due course to help distributors spring up the sales war.

“Steady” is the overall tone of the year, and Yan Jinghui predicts, “From the perspective of Beijing, the auto market will enter normal in March. In the future, the monthly new car will be around 50,000 and the used car will be 60,000. At the same time, from a national point of view, this will also be such a situation. It is expected that there will be no leaps in growth or decline this year."

Similar to Yan Jinghui's argument, many experts believe that China's auto market will be based on "stability" in recent years. However, experts also pointed out that compared with previous years, the auto market will still present some new features, such as trade-in for new and more rapid growth.

According to the analysis, with the continuous increase of the number of motor vehicles in the country, the upgrading of secondary consumption and auto grades will be a clear trend, and the increase in the proportion of redemption will become more apparent this year. “Especially in the first and second tier cities, cities with more than 2 million in size, the rate of replacement with new ones will increase rapidly.” Yan Jinghui said that from economical cars to mid-to-high-class cars, from cars to SUVs, there is a need for car owners to update vehicles. , is an important factor in pulling new car sales.

Su Hui also said that in the next few years, trade-in will be an important factor in the increase of the auto market. At the same time, many cities including Beijing will give policy support for trade-in replacement, which will further stimulate vehicle consumption. The data confirms the experts' arguments. It is reported that due to the continuation of old motor vehicle subsidies and the increase in subsidies for scrapped old vehicles, the scrapped amount of old and old cars in Beijing increased by more than 10% in January this year, resulting in the number of car purchases. Undoubtedly, this will be a new growth point for the auto market this year.

In addition, the circulation of second-hand cars is gradually improving and rapid development. This new marketing model will drive the sales of new cars. "Used car circulation will effectively promote the development of the nationwide used car market. While most of the first and second tier cities in China now have entered the first batch of transfer cycles, the large circulation model will help these urban used cars to promote new car sales." Beijing A person in charge of the old motor vehicle trading market said that the positive role of second-hand car circulation has begun to show up. Last year, the number of used car transactions rose significantly, and this year's driving effect will be even more pronounced.

This year, the price of cars will not change greatly. The price change has always been the focus of consumers' attention. The price war started last year from the luxury car market has almost affected the nerves of the entire industry, and its influence is too large to be estimated. Looking ahead this year, some experts predict that compared with last year's ups and downs, the vehicle price will stabilize this year. Although it is not ruled out that individual models will have substantial phasing benefits for a certain period of time, the overall market, whether it is a luxury car or a mid-to-high For cars and economic vehicles, prices are much more stable than last year.

"Last year, luxury cars were mostly the main models, such as the Mercedes-Benz S-class lead in the price reduction, the impact on the market segments and the industry as a whole." Yan Jinghui said that this type of major models provoked a large-scale price war, the brand Both companies and businesses have a particularly large negative impact on profits. “Last year, manufacturers have already seen the bad effects of this price war. If you change prices in this way, it is likely to cause price and price changes, and it is very dangerous. This year's manufacturer's behavior toward dealers must be controlled."

In addition, there are market analysts who have experienced the ups and downs of the vehicle diving style last year, and many dealers are no longer able to fight price wars. Therefore, this year, everyone will be more sensible on promotion and try to avoid the ups and downs of car prices. Uncontrollable situation.