Domestic PV Industry Policy Status and Development Trend Interpretation

On September 26th, the "Guangdong Photovoltaic Industry (Sanshui) International Summit Forum" was held on September 26th, 2010 in Sanshui Golden Sun Hotel, Foshan, Guangdong. The forum focused on the theme of “grasping the policy direction and promoting industrial agglomeration”. In order to seize the historical opportunities for the on-going launch of the domestic PV market, the Forum will grasp the development direction of the domestic PV industry policy.

Mr. Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, gave a keynote speech at the conference on "The Current Status and Development Trends of China's PV Industry Policy." The following is a summary record of the meeting:

Li Junfeng: Let me talk about the judgments of last year, this year and the next few years. National development level, domestic level, future trends. In 2007 and 2008, I spoke loudly about solar energy. When everyone showed a low ebb in 2008, I said there was no problem.

In the first half of 2007 and 2008, the development of solar energy was particularly good, but the financial turmoil in 2008 and 2009 had a severe impact on various industries. After rapid development, the new energy industry has entered a good stage, but there are some industries, such as LEDs, which have dropped from the previous more than 90 US dollars to 10 US dollars and have not rebounded. The global investment trend, despite the financial crisis is so serious, continues to grow in new energy investments.

China’s energy accounts for 25% of the world’s investment. This is an analysis done by a foreign institution, but my analysis is that this figure exaggerates China’s investment capacity. Why, first of all, U.S. wind power is no less than China, and Germany’s is U$4.3 billion. , far more than 10 billion US dollars.

This is wind power, followed by the development of solar energy.

Wind power has entered the stage of conventional development and is not a game of a few countries. At the end of 2009, 87 countries around the world engaged in wind power.

Photovoltaic power generation has both challenges and opportunities. PV has developed rapidly despite its influence. In 2007 and 2008, it increased by more than 70%, but it rose by more than 40% after the financial crisis. However, this opportunity and challenge coexist. Photovoltaic is not like wind power. Wind power has a constant market. Solar power was supported by Spain in 2007. In 2008, it was Germany's support. This is a big problem. In 2010, The problem is more prominent. The gradual and rapid development of wind power, our country doubled in 2009 compared to 08, reaching 2.5 million. After the second half of this year, I became crazy again. I calculated briefly that by the end of this year, the PV production volume will exceed 700-800 MW, and the first half will be close to 5 GW. This is a relatively high estimate. This is a concept. In the first half of the year, the delivery volume of most countries is the same as last year.

However, our production capacity is skyrocketing. All equipment purchased is estimated to be 15 million kilowatts at the end of this year. In this kind of development, China’s industry accounts for almost 60%-70% of the total. What causes this problem? The first is the rise in raw material prices, including the investigation of China’s anti-dumping measures against the United States. We firmly oppose it, but we think deeply about it. A country accounts for 60-70% of the global market and poses a great threat to the development of other countries’ industries. As a result, there is a great challenge to the photovoltaic industry.

Now let's look at the development of our country. In two words, one is that the market is hot and the government is relatively calm, especially the central government. Whether it is the planning of new energy sources or the strategic planning, it is a thunderstorm. One of the reasons is that this market is very hot. What policies do not have a great impact on the market, such as bidding for photovoltaics, 28 megawatts, and the lowest is 0.728 yuan, which has a great deal of electricity pricing for the country. Influenced, the electricity price of photovoltaic is 1.5 hair, in fact everybody can find a balance. Now that the difference is 40%, how can we balance the points? Which one is accurate? These are more troublesome.

There is also the problem of development indicators. The country’s 20 million-kilowatt goal in 2020 is now looking at this international market. We have also begun. The country is very distressed about how to make policies. There is not much change in the policy in view of the development of the country. Looking at the future development trend, international companies can now say that the policy direction is correct, including Germany and the United States.

In particular, it has recently made a very good response, directly increasing the price of electricity to ensure the stability of the photovoltaic market, and then looking at the development of China, India, and the United States. Our country has some negative effects and some good news.

When we did the research report, we all thought that the electricity price at sea was more than 6 and the land could do 4 cents. Therefore, when the state formulated the policy, it created a dilemma. Wind power is also a big problem. From the international point of view, we all want to fight first. We all want to be the first in new energy technologies. The United States is also, we are taking the initiative to develop new energy, and now the determination of the government is not enough because The government is still hesitant. Enterprises are bigger and more adventurous. Our optoelectronics account for 60-70% of the world, and China's Taiwan is even more than 70%.

There are also problems with development. To the problems in Guangdong, the development of our new energy is considered in the process of globalization. It is not a region. As far as the whole country is concerned, there are great developments in the northern and central regions, such as Jiangsu, Shanghai and Hebei. There are Sichuan, Hunan, and Hubei in the middle, which pose great challenges to new energy. This is a good or bad thing. I myself also say that there needs to be a space in the east and west, and there is an imbalance in development in Guangdong, such as Sanshui, of course. Faster than the West, how to balance.

Everyone said that in Taiwan, industrial agglomeration accounts for 10-25% of the world's production capacity, and it is only over 20 million. It is also quite similar in Beijing, Shanghai, and Germany. It is difficult to judge who is doing better, but for everyone, A good opportunity, or an old saying, has broad prospects and it is difficult to make judgments. I think that long-term accumulation is needed. The future of the market is bright. We need long-term efforts to avoid blind optimism. Especially in the photovoltaic industry, we must make rational judgments. We account for 60-70% of the global market, but I do not think that As long as China does it, I think it's better to maintain 60-70%. I think it's rational. If it's 100%, we're dying. We've been looking for balance, but we haven't found it.