Lithium iron phosphate VS ternary lithium: 2017 will be on the market

In recent years, with the increasing demand for new energy vehicles, the traditional lithium iron phosphate battery has been difficult to meet the demand, domestic lithium battery companies have begun to gradually abandon the lithium iron phosphate route, and continue to move closer to the ternary system. In the next few years, Sanyuan has become the mainstream technology route for power batteries, and it seems that a consensus has been reached within the industry.

According to statistics, in 2015, lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries accounted for 69% and 28% respectively, and in 2016 they were 60% and 38%. It is expected that in 2017, there will be a half-point market structure, and by next year, the proportion of ternary batteries will exceed that of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The ternary battery has become the mainstream, which has also led to a sharp increase in demand for ternary cathode materials.

In 2016, the country's cathode material output was 161,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the output value reached 20.8 billion yuan. Among them, the output value of ternary cathode materials is nearly 8 billion yuan, the output value of lithium iron phosphate is 5 billion, and the growth rate of ternary materials is over 70%. The output value of ternary materials has exceeded lithium iron phosphate. Since the beginning of this year, due to the explosive growth of ternary batteries, ternary cathode materials are in short supply. Many cathode materials companies are still unable to meet market demand by adopting the “quantitative and non-pricing” supply method.

Enterprise layout three-element cathode material

Under the requirements of energy density and cruising range, the ternary battery has expanded rapidly. Since the beginning of this year, the capacity of giant battery companies such as BAK, Chaowei, Tianneng, Tianpeng and Foster has been almost all ternary batteries. Major power battery manufacturers, including BYD, ATL, and Lishen, have all introduced their plans for the ternary technology route for the next three years.

Since January 2017, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Dangsheng Technology, Keheng Co., Tianci Materials, Xiangtan Electrochemical, Umicore, Anda Technology have invested in the expansion of cathode materials in China, involving an investment of nearly 6 billion. Yuan, capacity planning exceeded 320,000 tons. According to industry estimates, the shortage of ternary materials will continue into the second quarter. Battery manufacturers also said that the price of cathode materials is small and the profitability is relatively stable. With the expansion of the market demand for ternary batteries, cathode materials will surely become an industry outlet.

On August 30th, Guoxuan Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. announced that the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Hefei Guoxuan Gaoke Power Energy Co., Ltd. plans to invest with China Metallurgical Industry Group Co., Ltd., BYD Co., Ltd. and Tangshan Caofeidian. Group Co., Ltd. signed a shareholder agreement to jointly establish a joint venture company. The registered capital of the joint venture company is 936.84 million yuan, mainly engaged in the ternary cathode material precursor project of lithium ion battery .

Technology upgrades to seize the future

Recently, the price of cobalt has risen violently, and the price of cathode materials has also generally increased. As of July 3, 2017, the intermediate price of electrolytic cobalt was 411,000 yuan/ton, and the price has increased by 62% since the beginning of the year. In the future, with the subsidies for new energy vehicles gradually declining, the pressure on passenger car manufacturers to reduce prices is greater, and some pressure will be transferred to the upstream power battery and material manufacturers. It is foreseeable that cathode material manufacturers will also face the situation of reducing costs and improving material utilization.

The ternary cathode material can be divided into nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary material (NCM) and nickel-cobalt-aluminum ternary material (NCA). Because nickel has the function of increasing the energy density of materials, NCM materials can be further divided into low-nickel NCM424, NCM333, NCM523 and high-nickel NCM622, NCM811, etc. according to the difference of the three transition metal ions. NCA is also a kind of high-nickel ternary material because it has a small amount of aluminum and is mainly composed of nickel and cobalt. At present, domestic power batteries are all NCM systems, and the industrialization process is mainly from low-nickel NCM333, 523, etc. to high-nickel 622, 811.

Compared with low-nickel ternary materials, the use of high-nickel ternary materials has a greater advantage in energy density. In addition to the high energy requirements of national policies, more and more companies are beginning to focus on high-nickel ternary Battery market. It is understood that many well-known battery companies such as BAK, BYD, Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc. have joined the ranks of high-nickel ternary research and development, and have set goals.

The positive electrode material is the key material of the battery, which accounts for 30-40% of the battery cost. At the same time, the performance of the positive electrode material is also a key factor that restricts the further increase of the capacity of the lithium ion battery. It can be said that only when the positive electrode material is mastered can the battery be mastered.