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From January to September this year, China paid more than US$13 billion for international crude oil prices. Although global oil prices may fall next year, it is estimated that it will not be greater than US$10. Despite the fact that international oil prices have fallen continuously for 16% within three weeks, from US$55.64 per barrel on October 25 to US$49.13 per barrel on December 1, However, the price of domestic fuel that has risen three times this year still leaves many buyers with an idea. According to new statistics released by the North Asian auto market, car sales should have fallen sharply during the peak season in October, and sales of 2,608 vehicles were only half of sales during the same period last year. Even compared to September this year, sales have also been reduced by nearly 1,000 vehicles. The price of oil has been affected by the whole and the entire price system and economic operation have been directly affected. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to September this year, due to rising international crude oil prices, China has already paid more than US$13 billion for this purpose. Experts estimate that for every US dollar rise in oil prices, China will need to pay more than one billion to 1.5 billion U.S. dollars for imported oil throughout the year. According to Zhou Dadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, if the average annual crude oil price in the international market rises by US$10 per barrel, China will have to spend US$7 billion to US$8 billion more. CNPC has conducted a comprehensive analysis of China's GDP, oil imports, and price fluctuations from 1993 to 2000: For every 1% increase in oil prices and for one year, China's GDP growth will be reduced by an average of 0.01%. Among them, the international oil price rose by 10.38% in 1999, which affected the growth rate of China's GDP by about 0.07%. In 2000, the international oil price rose by 64%, which affected China's GDP growth rate by 0.7%, equivalent to a loss of about 60 billion yuan. The Asian Development Bank believes that if oil prices are maintained from US$40 in the second quarter of 2004 until the end of 2005, China’s GDP will drop by 0.8% in 2005, increase the trade deficit equal to 0.1% of GDP, and consumer prices will therefore increase by 0.5%. Oil is like the 'blood' of the Chinese economy. Once high costs are paid for by high oil prices, it can easily cause 'anemia'. Researcher Zhang Hanya of the National Development and Reform Commission Investment Institute explained the relationship between the Chinese economy and petroleum. 'The Chinese economy is in a period of heavy industrialization. Economic development is highly dependent on oil. China's oil is imported from 40%, and high oil prices have a profound impact on the domestic economy. Special attention should be paid to the hidden influence that cannot be easily estimated. If oil prices remain high for a long period of time, a price transmission mechanism will not be conducive to macroeconomic development. 'Zhang Hanya said. Shanghai Energy Energy Researcher Liang Haisan believes that oil prices have become an intractable problem for China's macroeconomic decision-making, and the difficulty of macroeconomic regulation has also increased. Liang Haisan said that the impact of rising international oil prices on China’s economy can be divided into direct and indirect. The direct impact is on pulling up animal prices, increasing foreign exchange expenditures, and reducing net exports, thereby reducing the GDP growth rate; the indirect impact is the potential danger of product exports falling. With petroleum as the main fuel and raw material, product competitiveness has been declining due to rising production costs; secondly, exporting countries have made difficulties in their balance of payments due to rising oil prices, which in turn reduced their import capacity. This is where inflation and the resulting changes in monetary policy are most important. Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute researcher said that the impact of high oil prices on the efficiency of various industries in the national economy is obvious. Most of the downstream processing and consumer industries will suffer from high oil prices. According to their ability to shift costs downwards and the elasticity of consumer demand, most downstream processing industries such as chemical fiber manufacturing, plastics processing, rubber products, and building materials Due to the weak transferability cost, severely affected by high oil prices; transportation industry, aviation and other service industries can be partially passed on to the cost, and the overall benefits are compromised; the benefits of the auto industry will also be negatively affected. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast, due to a moderate correction in global economic growth, the increase in demand for crude oil has slowed. The average daily crude oil demand in the world in 2005 was 84 million barrels, 1.8 million barrels more than in 2004, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year, and the increase rate was 1.1% lower than that in 2004. Crude oil supply in the international market has grown steadily. Although the current production capacity of the OPEC oil-producing countries is very limited, after two years of high oil prices, some crude oil investments will form new production capacity in 2005, and Iraq’s oil production is expected to increase substantially. According to the forecast of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the world crude oil supply in 2005 was 84.2 million barrels, an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day from 2004, an increase of 1.8%, of which OPEC's daily supply increased by 2.5%. In addition, the major uncertainties affecting the international oil market are expected to ease. With Iraq’s restoration of sovereignty, a stable domestic environment is a prerequisite for Iraq’s supply of crude oil to the international market. The victory of Venezuelan President Chavez in the referendum helped to ease the turmoil in Venezuela and ensure the normal production and export of crude oil. However, terrorist incidents and geopolitical risks are unpredictable. Therefore, investors and oil consumers' concerns about oil supply will be difficult to change in the coming year, and global oil demand will not drop by the same proportion as the global economic growth rate slows next year. Although the global oil price dropped in 2005, it is estimated that it will not be greater than 10 US dollars.