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For the current coal chemical industry, some experts have issued warnings. From the perspective of raw materials, according to the current construction and planned production, the domestic methanol production capacity in the near future will reach more than 50 million tons, which requires 100 million tons of coal. According to the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†of the national coal industry, by 2010, only 100 million tons of coal will be used for all chemical industries. The coal chemical industry needs adequate coal resources for protection. There is not a lot of coal to support coal chemical industry “heat†and it is also a problem that experts worry about. Shanxi Academy of Social Sciences researcher Zhang Lianlian pointed out that after high-intensity, large-area, large-scale development, shallow coal reserves in Shanxi province are currently attenuated, and coal quality gradually deteriorates, and high quality low-ash and low-sulfur coals will be near 10 to 15 Depleted during the year. If one day there is really no coal, coal chemical industry is not a deadweight?
From the perspective of prices, the current coal chemical industry is based on the high international crude oil prices and the relatively cheap coal prices. Although the era of low oil prices is over, the international crude oil prices under a variety of factors are still quite variable. Three years ago, no one predicted that the international oil price will exceed 70 U.S. dollars this year. Who can guarantee that oil prices will not fall after three years? The coal price is also very variable. In recent years, the price of domestic coal wellheads has risen from 20 to 30 yuan to 240 yuan, which has nearly doubled, and the “coal barren†was spurred by the coal province of Shanxi at the beginning of this year. At present, these planned coal chemical projects have a construction period of 3 to 5 years. By then, it would not be impossible for the price of oil to drop or the price of coal to rise even if both occur at the same time.
From the perspective of market capacity, if the supply of raw materials and prices are not a problem, it is bound to stimulate the largest possible number of coal chemical projects. At present, most of the coal chemical projects around the country are concentrated in the direction of coal to oil, coal to methanol, etc. The project is of the same type, lacks distinctive products and development direction, and has low-level repeated construction and tends to move upwards. Once these large-scale projects are completed, they will inevitably cause a sharp increase in the output of similar products. According to the law of domestic repeated construction for many years, it is very likely that there will be periodic “supply tribulationsâ€, price plunges, and corporate losses “trilogyâ€.
If there are problems with the supply of raw materials and prices, there will be a drastic drop in the size of the coal chemical projects launched; if there is no problem with the supply of raw materials and prices, there will be market capacity problems - many experts believe that domestic coal chemical industry will face This dilemma is not entirely alarmist.
Du Minghua, dean of the China Coal Research Institute Beijing Coal Chemical Research Branch, and other experts also pointed out another problem: In some areas, some companies occupies resources in the name of "coal to oil," and the speculation of resources has outstripped coal. The actual development needs of the chemical industry. This is more of a warning right now.
According to the "Accelerate the Development of a 3-year Coal Chemical Industry with Shanxi Advantage", Shanxi will invest 9.24 billion yuan to develop coal chemical industry in the next three years. By 2007, the coal chemical industry in Shanxi Province will achieve a sales income of 50 billion yuan. New sales revenue of 35 billion yuan. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region also proposed to develop and produce high-value-added coal chemical products. It will focus on achieving four key objectives: 10 million tons of coal-to-oil, 10 million tons of methanol, 10 million tons of chlor-alkali chemicals, and 10 million tons of coking coal, to speed up construction. Batch key projects. Ningxia proposed to implement a large project to drive strategic development of coal chemical industry. The Ningdong energy and heavy chemical industry base that has been started will be constructed with a dynamic investment of 30 billion yuan. Leaders of Henan Province expressed that they must establish coal chemical industry as a pillar industry as quickly as possible. The preliminary plan for the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†has put methanol- olefins, methanol-carbon-chemicals, coal coking-tar deep processing, and coal to synthesize ammonia—fine chemical industry IV. As a key task for the development of coal chemical industry, the large industrial chain will build five major coal chemical industry bases. Shaanxi Province will build a coal chemical base with methanol as the leader in northern Shaanxi. As soon as possible, the production capacity of 150 million tons of raw coal, 3 million tons of coal-based oil, and 3 million tons of coal-made methanol will be formed. Guizhou Province also plans to invest 52.28 billion yuan in the construction of five major coal chemical bases such as synthetic ammonia, dimethyl ether, coal coke chemicals, and calcium carbide-acetylene chemicals. In addition, many provinces (autonomous regions) such as Yunnan, Anhui, Shandong and Xinjiang have started or plan to build large-scale coal chemical projects. According to industry insiders, at present, there is almost no coal-producing area that does not engage in coal chemical industry.